Disclaimer: Markets are subject to global and local factors that keep changing, and therefore the comments made here may lose their validity by tomorrow. Typically derivative data analysis is good for swing trading (1 day to 2 weeks), but it goes wrong too. Please use this post for study and analysis.
Date: 26-6-19 Wednesday
1. Cues from probable budget announcements
Buying a new house will get tax concession (Hsg Finance, Cement)
LNG GST will be lowered (Power plants, gas companies)
2. By and large, operators are squaring up positions by the end of the day in the derivatives market because all OI spikes are nullified. This indicates people don’t want to take positions home. be wary before you get extra bullish.
3. DHFL may see more price action on the upside tomorrow because it is selling some more assets to pay debt.
4. HDFC Ltd looks like a solid medium term pick. It is being used to maintain Nifty + plus there is buzz that housing will get a lot of tax concessions in this budget.
5. Jindal Stainless at aound 33 seems like a blind buy for the long term
Date: 25-6-19 Tuesday
1. Option writers were happily writing Nifty 11700-11800 calls yesterday and today they were covering these and writing 11700 puts implying that 11700 is the bottom for this expiry.
2. DCB bank saw massive spike in volumes along with rise in price in the derivatives market.
3. Yes Bank’s PEs are being covered heavily. Will the stock cross below 100 this expiry? It does look soft.
4. There was a massive sale of 212 lots in Bharat Forge in the Futures market towards the close.
5. The promoter of Jindal Stainless would have bought more than 15 lakh shares in 2019 between 24 and 37. This stock is a buy for the long term. Do your diligence.
Date: 24-6-19 Monday
1. Sun Pharma’s promoter’s relative sold out 150000 shares at 379.
2. GMR Infra promoters bought 1.95 crore shares at 15.20 but the news is that one of its step down subsidiary is on the verge of default because it is not being paid by DISCOMs.
3. Volume buying in Adani Power in the FnO segment
4. A good amount of CE writing at Nifty 11700-11750 and PE covering at 11700 for this week’s expiry suggests that option writers are betting on a fall, at least for tomorrow.
5. For BNF it seems that the index will remain more or less in the 100-200 point range, based on options cues. However, note that this is a volatile market and what options writers think and do, may not come true.
Date: 21-6-19 Friday
Again, a very manipulated that revered gains of the previous day with stocks falling hard but the index being maintained by a few stocks.
1. Petronet LNG is being accumulated. Downside seems limited.
2. V Guard seems to be on verge of entering into bull territory. Stock to be tracked.
3. Realty majors such as Oberoi, Brigade and Godrej Properties should do very well going forward. DLF may not participate because of the Robert Vadra factor.
4. Despite most Indians flaunting beards, is Gillette on the verge of a massive move? The Mark Minervini screener that I use suggests so.
5. Until and unless the market sees some solid policy action, it will continue to chop around dangerously. Tomorrow too is expected to be dicey with the GST meeting turning to be all gas and Iran-USA trading barbs.
Date: 20-6-19 Thursday
Updates were suspended for 19-6-19 because of the choppy nature of the market
1. The NDA has poached 4 TDP MPs taking its strength to 106 in the RS. The majority mark is 123 and with the support of YSRC, TRS, BJD and independents, the NDA should be able to stitch together a majority to pass tough reforms.
This will be taken as a positive sign by FIIs and IMO the budget rally has started today. BUT Trump is itching for a war and has threatened Iran this evening. We have to see how that is absorbed by the market. Crude is up 6% already.
2. There was a fair amount of buying in Cholamandalam Finance at lower levels (280). Track the stock.
3. Solid buying in DCB Bank in the last 5 minutes in the derivatives market.
4. Exide Industries saw steady buying throughout the day and the buying accelerated in the last 15 minutes.
5. Considerable Nifty Puts were written for 27 June Expiry at 11700-11800 strike prices, implying that writers expect the market to hold above 11800. Well, one hopes they are right because if Trump keeps threatening Iran, market will fall.
Date: 18-6-19 Tuesday
Updates were suspended for 3 trading days because of the choppy nature of the market
1. 19-6 is expected to be bullish with the ECB moving towards a stimulus and some European bond yields touching 0%.
2. IGL is being bought in the FnO market. It may have to do with the fact that the government pushing CNG over conventional fuels.
3. SRF too witnessed massive buying with a 750% jump in volumes.
4. Ramco Cement too witnesses brisk buying in the FnO segment.
5. Options chain suggests 11650 to 11750 is the Nifty range for the current expiry. However, we should have a bullish day tomorrow and the CE writers may be in trouble.
Date: 13-6-19 Thursday
1. As expected, the day was choppy and untradeable. Just when things got positive, came the news that 2 oil tankers have been attacked in the Gulf, and Iran may be involved. Cannot predict what will happen tomorrow.
2. Federal Bank has approved fund raising plans. Stock is worth tracking.
3. Trident promoters have picked up large chunks in the last 10 days. This stock has the potential to fly esp if some concession is passed to exporters in the budget.
4. DHFL and RBL Bank saw volume selling in the derivatives market. One can understand selling in DHFL, but selling in RBL Bank is a mystery.
5. Britannia is looking hot on the charts. Downfall seems limited and upside can be 3500 in the short-medium term.
Date: 12-6-19 Wednesday
1. The market is so slippery and so well managed by big players playing with index heavyweights that it is almost impossible to see through their shenanigans. Therefore, until the trend is clear, you should SIP, or as suggested earlier, stay away.
2. Volume buying was noticed in Godfrey Philips, Torrent Pharma and Berger Paints.
3. There is massive promoter buying in Trident Ltd. Stock to be watched.
4. Promoters are also buying stock in steel companies such as Jindal Stainless and Manaksia Steels. The Steel industry seems to be expecting something in the budget.
5. There is considerable PE covering in Sun Pharma. Seems like writers are expecting a big fall.
Date: 11-6-19 Tuesday
1. It seems that the market is getting ready for a big upmove. So far, it is being driven by a few stocks while shorts are building up in many FnO stocks. The upmove can happen anytime, it’s not a question of if, but when.
2. The Modi government’s move to sell a good percentage of stock in PSUs to private players may electrify these stocks.
3. Colgate saw a 396% spurt in volume in the FnO market. There was heavy buying up to 3 PM and some unwinding took place from there on. Nevertheless, stock to be tracked.
4. Very heavy PE writing between 11900-12000 suggests market will be very bullish tomorrow.
5. Why are JSW Steel promoters selling big chunks regularly? If you own the stock, find out.
Date: 10-6-19 Monday
1. It seems that the market is being controlled by very large and serious players who know what’s up on the inside.
If you have noticed – a spate of bad news has suddenly hit the market. No corporate tax rate cut, LTCG hike, shortfall in tax collection to be budgeted, etc. This clearly implies that smart money is interested to build shorts.
Now, the situation can quickly reverse, or it may take 1-2 weeks of uncertainty – we’re not sure.
You would have noticed the methodical reversals and news plants (Sun TV, Zee, DHFL) in the media today. From 90+ the Nifty dropped to 10+ and closed at 60+ without the broad market participating.
If you’re a small trader, just stay away until the trend is clear.
2. Stocks that look boombastic on the charts for the medium term – Jubilant Food, Tata Global, Britannia.
3. Fair amount of PE writing in ICICI Bank suggests stock is in for good times.
4. Though Motherson Sumi spurted today, it does seem that the upside is capped, perhaps at 125 (based on option writing cues).
5. Heavy CE writing in AuroBindo Pharma at 630 strike suggests stock may not move up (CMP 627)
Date: 7-6-19 Friday (note no updates for 6-6-19 as it was an event (DHFL) day)
1. Has the DHFL crisis blown over? Most likely it has, although it is yet being played by TV channels. In the recent past, DHFL has repaid 40000 cr debt and there’s little reason why they won’t honour 1150 crores on Monday. The RBI also has tweaked NPA guidelines and that should aid sentiment on Monday.
2. JSW promoters are selling big chunks of their holding between 270-280. Unsure what’s going on.
3. V Guard, Tech Mahindra and BEL saw brisk buying in the FnO market on Friday.
4. PFC is a stock to be watched. There’s a fair bit of call covering at between 130 and 135 levels and a lot of PE writing at these levels. The stock may do 140-145.
5. NCC is witnessing heavy call covering and put writing. Looks good for a spike based on options data.
Date: 4-6-19 Tuesday (note 5-6-19 is a holiday)
1. It seems that Tuesday’s fall was a bear trap and that we should open gap up tomorrow (Thursday). RBI too is expected to announce a 50 BPS cut which will further cheer the market. If the rate cut is 25BPS, then expect the market to react negatively.
2. There was massive buying in Manappuram Finance in the derivatives market with a 340% jump in volumes.
3. Federal Bank is another stock to be watched because the company’s non-interest income is rising, its NPAs are falling and its margins are getting better. It can be an alpha play.
4. The USA sanctions (India not being regarded as a developing nation PLUS USA withdrawing preferential treatment to Indian exports) will hit pharma and auto component stocks very hard. be wary.
5. Texmaco Infra stock is to be watched because promoters are buying continuously since it was 50 (now 54).
Date: 3-6-19 Monday
1. Heavy PE writing and CE covering for Nifty 12000 strike price indicates that Nifty will close very strong this expiry.
2. Likewise there’s heavy PE writing for BNF 31500 and a fair amount of call covering at the same strike price indicates a fairly strong close for the BNF this expiry.
3. Jubilant Foodworks is looking strong on the charts and chances are that it will move up in the coming days.
4. Colgate saw handsome buying in the derivatives market in the last one hour. Stock to be tracked.
5. One clear winner among PSU Banks is SBI. 370-375 looks possible in the short term as per option chain analysis.
Date: 31-5-19 Friday
1. The action now will shift to the banking sector as the RBI gets ready to announce a rate cut (99% chances) of 0.5% this week. You should track IDFC First Bank in which there was informed buying in the FnO segment despite a drop in price.
2. With oil crashing on Friday, the paints and oil marketing sectors should perform well on Monday.
3. There is a whole lot of promoter buying going on in Texmaco Infra at 54 levels. Stock to be watched.
4. Operators have entered NCC and you can now expect wild swings either way in the stock.
5. You also must track NBFCs and microfinance stocks such as Ujjivan and Manappuram as these seem to be in for a good time/
Date: 30-5-19 Thursday
1. A fair bit of CE and PE writing in the Nifty 12000 for 6-6-19 expiry suggests options writers are hedging their bets. However, after today’s development of Amit Shah joining the cabinet, the market may jump if there are indications he is appointed FM.
2. Is Suzlon back in action? Buying in the FnO market suggests so
3. Idea too saw a lot of buying in the FnO market.
4. Siemens and Marico are looking ultra bullish on the charts.
5. Laggard stock Indian Acrylic must be tracked – because promoters are buying continuously.
Date: 29-5-19 Wednesday
1. Heavy call writing between 11850-12000 for tomorrow’ expiry and solid PE covering across all levels indicates Nifty will close soft tomorrow.
2. Heavy CE writing in BNF 31500 and a fair amount of PE covering indicates another soft day for the BNF tomorrow. The problem is that all these excessive writing may be initiated by confused options writers who were happily writing PEs till 2 days ago and have been caught on the wrong foot.
3. PFC is a stock to watch for the medium term. It saw buying in the FnO market in the final 5 minutes.
4. Volume selling was witnessed in Repco Home Finance in the FnO market.
5. The promoters of TV Today netwoek picked up 272000 shares at around 292, a bullish sign
Date: 28-5-19 Tuesday
1. There is a good amount of PE writing at Nifty 11900PE and a fair amount of 11900CE for tomorrow’s expiry. This implies that tomorrow will be a choppy day with 30-50 points moving either side and then closing flat – just like today. PE wwriting at 11850 suggests that it is a bottom.
2. The same can be said for BNF PE and CE at 31700 strike price. Downside if any seems limited at 31500-31600, and the closing may be flat after wild swings on expiry day tomorrow.
3. Coal India witnessed very heavy volumes in the fnO market but whenever the price rose, some heavy hands sold. Be wary of price spikes, in my opinion.
4. A foreign fund picked up a large chunk (54,60,159 shares) in Cadilla Healthcare. Track the stock.
5. The promoter of Gateway Distriparks bought 200000 shares at 132. This may be because the company is expecting some news on the infra front in warehousing and logistics.
Date: 27-5-19 Monday
1. Solid Nifty PE 11900PE writing and a fair amount of 11950CE writing for 30-5-19 expiry suggests that options writers expect the Nifty to close in the 11900-11950-12000 range this expiry.
2. Likewise, writing in BNF 31500PE and 31600-31800CEs suggests that the BNF may close between 31650-31750 this expiry.
3. Heavy call covering in Axis Bank for 830CE June expiry suggests the stock is in for a good time next month.
4. Despite all the hoo-haa yesterday, NTPC may be stuck in the 130-135 range for this expiry. Next month’s trends don’t indicate much.
5. Every rise in Motherson Sumi was sold into yesterday in the derivatives market.
Date: 24-5-19 Friday
1. One solid sign is that Nifty is witnessing PE writing for 27 June 2019 expiry at 12000 expiry. This implies that option writers are of the opinion that there will be a huge spurt in the Nifty from here on.
2. Track Godfrey Phillips. It saw a rise in 177% rise in volumes in the FnO market with a rise in price. It should head higher.
3. Manappuram Finance has been witnessing steady buying in the FnO market since some days.
4. Ceat Tyres saw solid buying in the FnO market towards the close.
5. Sudhakar Ram a director of Mastek sold out 2,00,000 shares of Majesco. Unsure what’s up. But f you own Majesco, find out what’s up
Date: 23-5-19 Thursday
1. India has once again voted in a NDA government and that implies a continuance of policy, which all FIIs want. We should be in for a nice rally in the next 3-6 months. Expectation is that Nifty will do 13k in this time.
2. Adani Ports saw volume buying in the FnO market. The political winds are favorable for this stock, and an investment or SIP is recommended.
3. You also can consider other political stocks such as ADAG group, Zee Group, Vedanta, etc.
4. Larsen & Toubro will benefit in a big way because of new infra orders. It is witnessing buying in the FnO market.
5. Penny stock Indian Acrylics may see some action because the promoter has bought heavily in the last one month. However, this stock has been a laggard for many years.
Date: 22-5-19 Wednesday
1. Though we have suspended daily updates, tomorrow will be an extremely volatile day (election results) and traders should keep away. Not trading for a day, or some days, also implies taking a position. Remember one thing – never chase the market, instead, wait for the opportunity and chase it. Till there is clarity on the new government, there will not be any opportunities knocking.
2. Massive jump in volumes (500%) in Indusind Bank and a swing from -3% to +5% implies that the stock may be used in Index management. Track it.
3. You also can track Bharat Financial, which saw massive buying towards the close.
4. Ramco Cements also saw considerable buying both in cash and FnO markets, and weak hands sold out towards the end. This steady stock can be considered for a SIP.
5. Remember that Indian elections are not the only thing – we have the Iran issue and the China-USA trade war looming overhead. You should either play intra day or SIP – nothing else till trend is clear.
Date: 17-5-19 Friday
1. Oil is close to $73/barrel, one Dollar is around Rs 70.20, experts say that the USA-China war will cost us dear. Plus, our election results are around the corner. In this scenario, it is better to either buy for the long term or in a SIP or trade intra day, and stay away from other forms of investing/trading.
2. A 1000% and 300% rise in volume in Bajaj Auto and Hero Moto, coupled with a rise in price and OI suggests that the two wheeler stocks may have bottomed out. Perhaps that logic applies to the whole auto sector.
3. Dr Reddy saw a fair bit of selling in the FnO market.
4. Godrej Industries witnessed buying in the FnO market with a 100% jump in volumes.
5. Lot of buying towards the close in Kotak bank. Stock to be watched.
Date: 16-5-19 Thursday
1. The jump in the market was triggered by an exit poll published by a TV channel which gave 177 seats to NDA and 141 seats to UPA. Later on the channel said it was dummy data. This seems to be mischief – in any case, watch out for a lot of red herrings in the run up to government formation.
2. Option writers seem to be caught in a bind. yesterday they were writing calls thinking that the Nifty will be stuck around 11200 levels. Today they were covering calls and writing puts. For the 23rd May expiry, the activity was subdues, which implies that writers are as confused as we are. The same observation holds true for BNF.
3. Shorts were being covered in Sun Pharma today. The trend may continue tomorrow. Watch the entire pharma pack, there may be action.
4. Motherson Sumi is another stock to watch in the short term. If it holds on to 115-120 range, it can snake up.
5. Longs are being taken home in TCS. The IT sector also may be in for some action.
Date: 15-5-19 Wednesday
1. Solid shorts with volumes were built in Lupin and Amara Raja Batteries.
2. Massive short covering in Nifty PEs for 16-5-19 Expiry in most strike prices suggests that the selling should continue.
3. The same observation holds good for BNF. Downtrend is expected to continue tomorrow.
4. In all this selling, one stock that is showing strength is SRF. However it has risen 10% in the last 2 days and can correct. But it must be tracked as a medium term bet.
5. Derivatives data suggests Jubilant Food is in a bull grip, but then tomorrow seems a dicey day.
Date: 14-5-19 Tuesday
1. Nifty PE writing at 11200 and CE covering at the same strike price suggests we should have a bullish day tomorrow, at least in the first half.
2. A spurt in volumes coupled with a rise in price and short covering in Siemens suggests that the stock may do well tomorrow.
3. Good results from SRF’s saw a dramatic jump in volumes and price. It should do well tomorrow too.
4. Jet Airways may have recovered its losses today but investors are advised to be extremely wary of the stock because Etihad has not made a binding bid.
5. There is buying in the DCB bank in the FnO market. Track the stock on your charts.
Date: 13-5-19 Monday
1. Nifty CE and PE writing trends suggest that the range has shifted to 11050 to 11200. Tomorrow seems to be a bad day as well.
2. It is possible that today’s selling was because of some inside news related to political outcomes. The fall couldn’t have been because of the trade war because the trade war news caused a 40 points dent and it seemed discounted.
3. Massive volumes with fall in price of ITC, Oriental Bank, Balkrishna Industries and Eicher Motors indicates that selling in these counters may continue tomorrow.
4. Shorting continues in Arvind Ltd which has fa llen from 100 levels to 74.
5. Heavy PE writing in Sun Pharma at 400 strike price suggests that any further fall may be limited, but you cannot say in this market.
Date: 10-5-19 Friday
1. A massive jump in volumes of Kajaria Ceramics coupled with rise i OI and price indicates that either the stock may head higher on Monday or maybe the rise o Friday was a strong bout of short covering.
2. A good amount of CE writing at 11300 for 16 May expiry indicates that upside is capped for this week. A fair amount of PE writing at 11200 PE for the same expiry aso suggests that the market will remain range bound after a negative Monday.
3. Almost equal CE ad PE writing of BNF at 29000 strike price for 16 May expiry suggests that it will hover around these levels unless we have a manic Monday.
4. Track Aavas Financiers if you own it. There was a fair amount of selling by KMPs and designated persons.
5. Reiterating that there is heavy buying in IGL in the FnO market. It is a stock to be watched.
Date: 9-5-19 Thursday
1. KMP and designated person of Aavas Financiers sold 400000 shares at 1407. Be wary and find out what’s up if you own of the stock.
2. A fair amount of PE writing at 11300 and CE writing at 11400 for the 16-5-19 expiry indicates that the Nifty will remain in a range. However after falling 7 days in a row, a bounce is expected tomorrow.
3. More calls than puts were written for BNF 29000 strike price for 16-5-19 expiry. This indicates that the BNF may float around these levels.
4. IGL is being accumulated both in the cash and FnO markets. Stock to be tracked.
5. Hexaware witnessed a massive jump in volumes in the cash and derivative market, with increase in deliveries/OI. Stock to be watched.
Date: 8-5-19 Wednesday
1. One of Zee’s lenders has sold 86 lakh shares at 342. Be very wary of the stock.
2. Heavy call writing in the Nifty 11400-11500 strike prices and put covering at 11500 strike price for today’s expiry indicates that the writers expect a flat to negative market. Any short covering can screw up their expectations.
3. Based on options chain, one can play BHEL today in the 60-65 range.
4. There was volume buying in MRF in the FnO market yesterday.
5. Heavy Call writing in Yes Bank 160CE suggests the stock can face some more downside this month.
Date: 7-5-19 Tuesday
1. Heavy call writing in Nifty at 11500-11600 strike prices for the 9 May Expiry indicates that the market may slide some more this week. 11500 is should be broken and 11300-11400 can be the next support levels.
2. A decent number of Put writing in Bank Nifty at 29200 strike prices for the 9 May Expiry, indicates that the BNF bottom is in sight and can be found at around 29000-29100. Fingers crossed.
3. CG Power behaved crazily in the FnO market. It swung from bearish to bullish to bearish. Interesting this is that a Sunil Mittal company picked up 60 lakh shares at 36.50.
4. Heavy PE covering in Bharti Airtel suggests that the stock may be weak tomorrow.
5. Track IGL. There was heavy buying till 2 PM, and then it succumbed to selling. Nevertheless, it does seem that it will do well when the market turns
Date: 6-5-19 Monday
1. Heavy call writing in Nifty at 11600-11700 strike prices for the 9 May Expiry indicates that the market may slide some more this week. 11500 remains a key support level.
2. 400% rise in volumes in both the cash and FnO markets coupled with a 6% drop in price indicates that Strides Pharma is in for a rough patch in the near future.
3. Like Strides Pharma, Amara Raja Batteries saw heavy selling with increase in volumes in both the cash and FnO market. This stock looks weak.
4. Federal Bank saw a bullish day but petered out at around 100 levels. It seems the rally may have fizzled out.
5. Heavy call writing in Bank Nifty at 29700-30000 strike prices for the 9 May Expiry, coupled with put covering, indicates that the BNF is in for a torrid time this week.
Date: 3-5-19 Friday
1. The market is so sticky that picking stocks for trading is dicey because prices keep see-sawing and SLs are hit more often than not. If you are a small trader, or a positional trader, stay away from this market in which a few stocks are used to drive the Nifty.
2. A 500% increase in volumes of Bharat Forge in the cash market indicates something is up in the stock. It appreciated 21 bucks on Friday, and should be tracked.
3. A 200% increase in Bata’s volume coupled with a Rs 26 fall in price indicates that there is informed selling in the counter.
4. Some short covering observed in Yes Bank in the FnO market.
5. A 71% increase in volumes of DHFL, a 22% rise in OI and a bump up in price indicates interested buying.
Date: 2-5-19 Thursday
1. There may be some action in Apollo Hospitals tomorrow as the company has revoked pledge on 47 lakh shares.
2. Put writing in Nifty PE strike prices of 11500-11700 and Call writing in strike price of 11,800 for 9 May 2019 expiry indicates that the Nifty will move in the 115-00-11800 range in the coming week.
3. Yes Bank 200CE May call is being covered. This implies that writers are of the opinion that the stock can rise some more.
4. HDFC MF picked up a large chunk of SKF India stock. This share should be tracked (long term).
5. The performance of FMCG shares will depend on HUL’s results tomorrow. Keep a close watch.
Date: 30-4-19 Tuesday
1. Watch out for Exide. Massive volumes in cash and FnO but ZERO volatility. This implies it can break out or break down violently.
2. OI is rising with rise in price of HCL Tech. Looks bullish. Stock to be watched.
3. All ADAG group stocks are biting the dust. Maybe politically savvy investors are selling. Best to avoid such stocks.
4. Very heavy call writing in Idea at strike price of 15 implies that the stock will stagnate below or around 15 levels for the month.
5. There is a good amount of PE writing in Nifty 11800 strike price for the 2 May expiry. This implies writers are expecting the market to be bullish on 2-5-19.
Date: 26-4-19 Friday
1. Bank Nifty saw a rise in OI and price with a 50% jump in volumes. This could be because the SC has asked RBI to make bank inspection reports public. If these reports are published, PSU banks will tank and the private banks will jump as there may be a shift in accounts.
2. JSW Steel is another stock to be watched. It saw a massive rise in volume, delivery and OI increase in both the cash and FnO segments.
3. It seems something is happening in the background in ADAG stocks. The FnO section is witnessing heavy short buildup since the last few days. This fall could be related to politics.
4. JP Morgan picked up 26 lakh shares of MCX. Stock to be watched.
5. Kotak Bank too saw a healthy spurt in price and OI. Stock to be tracked.
Date: 25-4-19 Thursday
1. The market behavior was a nightmare for traders and option writers. The volatile see saws pulled pants, undies and other attachments all of many writers.
2. At the time of writing this update, Dow is -192 and Europe is in the red. Crude is around $75 and the $ is strong. These are not good signs for tomorrow’s trade, but can change by morning.
3. Keep watching CG Power – a Sunil Mittal company has picked up crores of shares since the last 20-25 days.
4. Massive volumes are building up in DLF coupled with a fall in price. However, towards the end of today’s session in the FnO market it saw some short covering. Perhaps the short covering can continue tomorrow, but this is not certain as sentiment seems to be negative.
5. The FnO market witnessed volume selling in GMR and BHEL. Keep these stocks on your radar.
Date: 24-4-19 Wednesday
1. A 277% jump in volumes of the Nifty IT index implies something is up in the sector. However, note that it is not very liquid.
2. Options writers who were happily writing 11600 and 11700 call options, covered these today in the last one hour, and started writing 11500-11700 puts. Hope for their sake that market does not fall tomorrow in the open.
3. Grasim saw a jump in volumes in the FnO market with a rise in price. Seems like it will do well.
4. Idea has witnessed a 88% rollover. Keep tracking it.
5. Heavy PE writing in Ultratech 4300PE implies heavy bullishness
Date: 23-4-19 Tuesday
1. 80% rollovers witnessed in Idea. This points to some kind of price action after the rights issue, which closes tomorrow.
2. Heavy call writing of Nifty 11600-11700 strike prices suggests this expiry Nifty may be unable to cross 11600.
3. Heavy call writing of Bank Nifty 29500-29600 strike prices suggests that even the BNF will be in a spot of bother this expiry.
4. Voting has concluded on 50% of the seats and people in the know will now start operating in political stocks. Keep a close watch on Adani, Zee, Vedanta, etc.
5. Call covering in Tata Elxsi suggests that the stock may move higher in the coming days
Date: 22-4-19 Monday
1. Axis Bank sold about 57 lakh shares of Reliance Capital on behalf of one of its clients. Be wary of this political group of stocks.
2. Given the OI DCB Bank generated, it would have shot through the roof, were it not for the negative sentiment that set in today. Stock to be watched.
3. Heavy PE covering of Nifty 11400 and 11500PEs suggests that market can react to 11,400. After that we have to wait for sunshine.
4. Trump’s literal ban on import of Iranian oil should hit the market hard tomorrow.
5. Bharti Airtel Futures price is above VWAP while Adani Power Futures price is below VWAP. You can chart these tomorrow and play the pair.
Date: 16-4-19 Tuesday
1. There is something huge happening in Ajanta Pharma. A massive jump in volumes saw the price and OI shooting up but both these returned to previous close levels by the end of the day. On the news front, the company is pushing its generics hard into the USA market and there may be some development on this front that is not known to us.
2. Similar FnO action was witnessed in DLF and DHFL. These counters MUST be tracked.
3. PVR saw a solid jump in OI and volumes in the FnO market. Stock to be tracked.
4. ONGC seems like headed for better days with a rise in price, volumes and OI.
5. Heavy PE writing in 30500, BNF for both 18 and 25 April expiries suggests the index will continue to rise.
Date: 15-4-19 Monday
1. Heavy PE writing in CIpla 560PE indicates that downward risk in this counter is limited.
2. Put writers were busy writing Tata Motors 210-230 PEs. This indicates that writers feel that the price will rise.
3. Coal India rose with heavy volumes while DCB Bank fell with heavy volumes. Stocks to be tracked tomorrow.
4. PC Jewellers 120, 125 and 130 calls were being written towards the close. Be wary of jumping in because heavy CE writing indicates option writers are expecting the stock can fall.
5. Reliance Capital and Idea Futures prices closed above VWAP. Stocks to be watched tomorrow.
6. There was heavy CE writing in Infibeam 55 strike price. Be wary of the rise.
Date: 12-4-19 Friday
1. GMR is 18.65 in the spot market and 19.85 in the Futures market. That makes for an arbitraging margin of 1.07%. Those who flip between FnO and spot markets can start tracking.
2. Massive volumes in the TV18 Broadcast counter coupled with a 9% jump in price indicates that this stock will do well going forward.
3. GAIL too witnessed a spike in OI and volumes along with a rise in price. Fundamentals are bullish too with CNG filling stations mushrooming all across India.
4. Heavy PE writing in ITC between of 300 and 305 strike prices indicates that the counter may rise.
5. The price of VGuard crossed above its VWAP in the futures market. Stock to be tracked.
Date: 11-4-19 Thursday
1. Godrej Consumer Products witnessed a 14.8% rise in OI but the price was flat. This is one stock to be tracked. If it breaks out onn the charts with volumes, it becomes a buy.
2. Manappuram Finance witnessed heavy buying in the FnO market. In the Options market, its 125 PEs were being covered while 130 CEs were being written, implying limited upside, but you never know because options writers can be wrong.
3. PVR too witnessed good buying in the FnO market with a 12% rise in OI and a 1.4% rise in price. Stock to be watched.
4. BEL witnessed a rise in OI with a fall in price. Is there some bad news around the corner, or was today’s movement a blip?
5. Heavy 11800CE and 11500PE writing for Nifty for 25 April Expiry puts the range at 11500-11800 for the month.
6. Heavy deliveries (OI rise) were absorbed in the capital goods sector along with a moderate rise in price. Something seems to be up in this sector.
7. Muthoot Finance is another stock to be watched out for. There was a rise in volume, OI and price today.
1. An 18% rise in volume coupled with a 9% rise in price and 420% rise in volumes in Infibeam indicates that someone in the know has picked up stock in the FnO market.
2. Godrej Consumer Product can be a stock to watch. The FnO market witnessed a 255% rise in volume with a 7.5% rise in OI. If market starts trending up, it could be a stock to watch.
3. Jet Airways – The cash price is 263 and the Futures price is 243. The premium between the cash and futures market fluctuates between Rs 8 and Rs 22-23. It is now at 20. If you want to take your chances in arbitraging….. (likewise, there is a Rs 4 gap in Reliance Capital, with futures cheaper than the spot price…)
4. The realty sector saw a sharp drop in OI. Is the dream run over for the time being?
5. Heavy call writing (11600-11700) and put covering (11500) in Nifty indicates we may have a tough session tomorrow, but you never know..
6. Very heavy put writing for Cipla 540 indicates that the stock may move up.
7. Heavy call writing for Wipro 285 and 290 CE and 280 PE indicates that the stock may move in a range for some time.
1. A 14% rise in volume coupled with a 1% rise in price of the BNF indicates that it may head higher on 10-4-19
2. A 11% rise in OI of DHFL coupled with massive volumes and a 4% surge in price in the last session of trade indicates that informed buyers are chasing the stock.
3. Just Dial is a stock to be watched tomorrow. Operators were toying with it in the FnO market and it can move sharply tomorrow, mostly up.
4. Ashok Leyland saw heavy volumes and short covering today in the futures market. It may catch the Maruti fever tomorrow and snake its way up.
5. Heavy volumes were witnessed in the Sun Pharma stock which recouped all its losses. Should be watched tomorrow.
6. Wipro could be the IT stock to watch in 2019. Heavy volumes coupled with a 3.5% rise in price may see it heading higher tomorrow.
7. Bajaj Auto too was chased in the futures market. Stock may head higher tomorrow.
8. Call covering in ICICI Bank indicates that writers are nervous that the stock may rise.
9. Reliance Capital recouped all its losses and closed above its VWAP in the Futures market. Looks interesting.
10. MCX may move wildly tomorrow as it recovered its losses today. Stock to be tracked tomorrow.
These are 10 highlights that are appropriate to publish. There are others too, but 10 cues seem more than enough.