Disclaimer: Markets are subject to global and local factors that keep changing, and therefore the comments made here may lose their validity by tomorrow. Typically derivative data analysis is good for swing trading (1 day to 2 weeks), but this theory does not hold good in a choppy market. Please use this post for study and analysis.
Date: 16-10-19 Wednesday
1. From options cues, Nifty range for expiry day is 114o0-11500, give or take 50 points either side. This can be broken either way by a surge in buying or selling. If the levels play true, markets will be dull and dreary like today.
2. Solid buying in HUL in the last 20 minutes. Track it tomorrow.
3. There was selling in steel stocks in the last 30 minutes. You can track JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel tomorrow.
4. There is buying in select PSUs like NMDC and BEL. Track these stocks.
5. There was sudden selling in the final minutes in Tata Global. You can plot pivots and trade this stock tomorrow.
Date: 15-10-19 Tuesday
1. From options cues, Nifty has solid support at 11400. Resistance at 11450-11500. However, the market is very volatile and can reverse anytime. Option writers are getting gamed by the volatility.
2. There was heavy buying in PFC in the final 10 minutes.
3. With chances of a Brexit deal happening, Tata Motors should do well tomorrow.
4. Tata Power is looking good for a short term trade.
5. There was considerable buying in Ujjivan today in the FNO segment.
Date: 14-10-19 Monday
1. From options cues, Nifty range is 11300-11450. However, option writers are riding a fierce tiger because markets are very volatile. So these levels can be broken either side.
2. There’s a hell lot of selling in Canara Bank in the derivatives market.
3. There was considerable selling in Tata Steel in the final 40 minutes today.
4. 116 lots of Manappuram Finance were unloaded at 3:17 PM implying long unwinding.
5. Longs are building up in Dabur. Place it on your charts.
Date: 10-10-19 Thursday
1. It becomes very depressing for the average retail trader and option writer when market moves up 180 points one day and then falls hard the next day. The confidence in reading the trend gets shaken and consequently he stays away leading to lower participation and a bleak market. This is what\s happening in our market where a few stocks dictate the indices’ trend.
2. From cues it appears the range for Nifty is 11250-11300 and the support exists at 11100. The PE covering was quite fierce today implying that writers expect the market to fall tomorrow. If you are trading the Nifty, please use this setup for confirming your signals. Also remember that both indices are driven by a few stocks and therefore you should rely on price action too instead of just indicators.
3. A FII fund sold out ore than 30 lakh shares of Ibulls Housing, and that’s a bad sign.
4. IndusInd bank was hammered after results and sellers were holing out even during the final minutes.
5. Shorts are building up in Piramal Enterprises. Chart it tomorrow.
Date: 9-10-19 Wednesday
1. Option writers were caught on the wrong side today as many wrote CEs without fear. Then they covered CEs and started writing PEs. From cues it appears the range for Nifty is 11300-11500 with chances of it moving up tomorrow, but one never knows.
2. There was a lot of selling in Pidilite today mainly because its been downgraded by Credit Suisse.
3. CE writing in HUL at 1960 and PE covering at 1920-1940 levels indicate it may react negatively a bit.
4. There is very heavy CE covering in Axis Bank and chances are it will move higher tomorrow. All private banks look good for tomorrow.
5. The Future group is pledging stock regularly. This may be normal, but you should keep a close eye on prices because there’s a slowdown going around, and one doesn’t know what is going behind the scenes.
Date: 7-10-19 Monday
1. From option writing cues the Nifty range for tomorrow seems to be 11100 – 11200. It’s a narrow range, but the bias is negative unless some radical new measures are announced by the FM.
2. Auro Pharma saw a spurt of 1133% in volumes and it was a non stop hammering session right up to the close.
3. Future Retail promoters have started pledging stock since the last 2 days. You need to watch if this keeps up.
4. Exide, BoB and JSW Steel are looking weak on the charts.
5. You should place Adani Ent on your chart. PEs are being covered and it does seem there is potential on the downside.
Date: 3-10-19 Thursday
1. From option writing cues the Nifty range for tomorrow seems to be 11300 – 11350/11400. It’s a narrow range but then we have the RBI policy tomorrow. A 25BPS point cut is discounted and if the cut is 25BPS, then the market will fall. Anything above that should help the indices, but not much because the liquidity issue remains an overhang.
2. There is a likelihood of the FM announcing direct tax cuts tomorrow. That should add some weight to the Nifty. But this is speculation, unsure if it will happen.
3. There was buying in Torrent Power and short covering in Tata Power today in the FnO segment. Something seems up in power stocks.
4. There was selling in Pidilite today in FnO, and it picked up pace in the final 20 minutes.
5. Infratel, ONGC seem weak on the FnO and cash charts.
Date: 1-10-19 Tuesday
1. From option writing cues the Nifty range for Thursday seems to be 11200 (some support) – 11350 (solid resistance). Know that these are hedged positions, so the chance of failure is 50%. nevertheless, there is solid PE covering implying there are higher chances of market falling.
2. Long unwinding seen in Torrent Power.
3. There was sudden and volume backed buying in NIIT tech in the last 10 minutes. You should chart the stock.
4. Anant Raj promoter has been buying stock since it was 30. It’s 35 now and he’s still buying.
5. Bharti Infratel looks weak on both charts and FNO.
Date: 26-9-19 Wednesday
1. From option writing cues the Nifty range for tomorrow seems to be 11550 (solid support) – 11650 (some resistance). Yesterday options data conveyed a negative picture, today it is positive. These are hedged positions, so the chance of failure is 50%.
2. There was a good amount of buying in Cipla in the derivatives segment. It can spike if it holds 440-442 levels.
3. LIC Housing Fin is looking very weak on the charts.
4. Tata Power promoters are buying the stock regularly in large quantities. Looks bullish.
5. PEL is a stock to watch. There was a fair bit of buying in the last 10 minutes.
Date: 25-9-19 Wednesday
1. From option writing cues the Nifty range for tomorrow seems to be 11400 (fair support) – 11500 (solid resistance) — as there’re no reasons to buy, tomorrow may be negative.
2. The Bank Nifty is to be watched. If the co-op bank failure issue snowballs, it will hit banks. Though private banks will benefit over PSUs, the perception of foreign investors will become very negative towards Indian banks and their operations.
3. Shorts are building up in Grasim.
4. The KEI management appeared on TV and gave a bullish commentary. However, today their director aand KMP sold off 1.25 lakh shares. Unsure what’s up.
5. Long unwinding seen in Powergrid at 199 levels.
Date: 24-9-19 Tuesday
1. From option writing cues the Nifty range for tomorrow seems to be 11500 (solid support) – 11700 (solid resistance) — it’s a wide 200 point gap, but market is crazily volatile.
2. Heavy selling pressure seen in IDFC First Bank today.
3. Anant Raj promoters have been steadily picking up stock since many days. It must be watched.
4. Is something going on in Lemon Tree Hotels? Funds sold out net 1 crore shares.
5. Shorts are building up in Exide Ind in the FNO market.
Date: 23-9-19 Monday
1. From option writing cues the Nifty range for tomorrow seems to be 11400-11700 — very wide, but market is very volatile.
2. It seems that the tax cuts cheer has been discounted and from tomorrow things should start getting real.
3. Petronet is looking weak because it has committed a huge investment in USA. It was sold off even towards the close.
4. Cadilla HC above 250 looks set for a spike. CMP 247.
5. CHARTS: OFSS is looking weak at 2999.
Date: 19-9-19 Thursday
1. From option writing cues the Nifty range for tomorrow seems 10650-10750 mostly tilted towards the negative. However banks should take a knock tomorrow because of the change in MSME NPA disclosure norms today evening. This can rattle the levels above.
2. The reason mentioned above can hit the Bank Nifty tomorrow.
3. Zee seems the next vulnerable stock. There was a hell of a lot of selling both in FNO and cash markets today.
4. There was selling in MFSL towards the close. Track the stock tomorrow by applying pivots on charts.
5. There was a lot of buying in Cummins towards the close. Place it on your charts.
Date: 18-9-19 Wednesday
1. From option writing cues the range for tomorrow seems 10700-10900. However, most options OI that is carried over is part of a strategy – for example: covered call, butterfly, etc., and as such the writers are well hedged. Therefore the option levels can change quickly.
2. Options Writing practice for those interested.. Nifty is not expected to fall or rise over 2o0 points tomorrow. If there is any movement it will be within 2o0 points. So, write 10600 PE at 1.80 and 11050 CE at 1.50. It’s small money, but you can get some practice. Typically this is what options writers do. They calculate volatility and take safe bets (hedges). Try this out if you like, but know that there’s an element of risk.
3. Give the spate of bad news – tax collections missed by wide margin, Fed losing control of its own rate because of dollar demand, no economic measures announced, POK, Iran hysteria – it does seem that markets will have a down day tomorrow.
4. ITC and the gang of tobacco stocks should do well tomorrow considering a ban has been announced on e-cigs.
5. Watch out for Tata Power – management is picking up large quantities and it can spike.
Date: 17-9-19 Tuesday
1. From option writing cues it does seem the writers expect Nifty to weaken further tomorrow. Extent will depend on FII selling.
2. Bank Nifty Option writers seem confused and there is both support and resistance at 27000-27100 levels. With 4 stocks driving 80% of the BNF, anything is possible.
3. Pidilite and Apollo Tyres saw selling in the FNO market, esp towards the close.
4. Something is up in Axis Bank.. the counter witnessed selling throughout the day, and it was considerable – 119% increase in volumes.
5. Same holds true for RBL Bank which saw volume selling esp towards the close.
Date: 16-9-19 Monday
1. There is no good reason to buy in this market – oil is up (67.50), rupee is down, fisc is getting hammered, leaders are chanting war, India’s economy is not doing too well. So why should one buy in the market?
2. Option writing cues suggest that tomorrow will be a negative day with calls being written at 10950+ and puts being covered at 11000- levels.
3. Bank Nifty too looks weak, but there is some semblance of support at 27600, but it’s not much.
4. There was some selling in CIPLA towards the close and it looks weak below 465 (CMP 470)
5. Buy dollar and hold as a hedge. It will help you in the long term.
Date: 12-9-19 Wednesday
1. Option writing cues suggest that writers are confused and are writing PEs and CEs at 11,000 Nifty. It suggests a choppy day tomorrow but point to note is that the market fell 50 points despite a net buy of 650 crores by FIIs.
2. Something up in Just Dial. It is looking very strong on charts but is not performing. You can apply pivots to it and trade if you like.
3. LIC Housing Finance, OFSS and Zee are looking bearish on charts for the short-medium term.
4. There was solid unwinding in Eicher Motors today in the FNO segment.
5. Indigo looks all set to fly higher given the activity in the FNO segment.
Date: 11-9-19 Wednesday
1. Sustained selling in GAIL suggests continuing weakness in the stock, save for bouts of short covering.
2. Option writing cues suggest another choppy day tomorrow with 11000-11100 being the range. It’s a narrow range and this writing cues can quickly go wrong esp on expiry day.
3. Zee Entertainment looks weak on the charts. If it crosses below 345, the fall can accelerate.
4. There is significant amount of buying in Jubilant Foods in the FNO segment.
5. ONGC too, like GAIL, is getting hammered in the FNO segment.
Date: 9-9-19 Monday
1. Volume buying in Just Dial specially towards the close indicates something is up in the stock.
2. Option writing cues suggest support for Nifty at 11000. Resistance is 11050-11100. It’s a very narrow range and this writing cues can quickly go wrong on a trend day.
3. Siemens too witnessed volume buying towards the close.
4. UPL above 590-592 can be a bullish play as there is buying in both cash and FNO segments.
5. There was heavy short covering in Tata Power at 60 levels. Track the stock.
Date: 5-9-19 Thursday
1. Global markets are bullish and some reforms may be announced over the weekend in India. It seems we should have a good day of trade on 6-9-19.
2. Option writing cues suggest support for Nifty at 10800. Resistance is 10950. A fair amount of CE writing at 27,000 in BNF suggests upside is capped. But writers can be wrong.
3. IGL above 333 looks like a god intraday play tomorrow/Monday.
4. Tata Motors saw solid buying towards the close at 118 levels
5. MGL too saw a solid round of buying between 3 and 3.30 PM
Date: 29-8-19 Thursday
1. For the 5th Sept expiry, options writers happily wrote 11000-11100 calls and 10900 puts. This implies that at least for tomorrow, writers are putting the range at 10900-11100.
2. Likewise, the BNF range seems to be 27200-27600. However know that DIIs and FIIs are big time writers and they often hedge positions, and in such cases, and only sometimes, data signals fail. Also check the 5th cue below. It may drag the BNF down tomorrow.
3. You may like to SIP on Chambal Fertilizers because the management is buying regularly.
4. There was volume buying in Bata towards the close.
5. As per a news report by CNBC , banks took 55 months to discover large frauds. It is bad news for the sector, coming at a time when global markets have started doing well again.
Date: 28-8-19 Wednesday
1. Massive PE covering across several strike prices in Nifty indicates that tomorrow may be a very weak day.
2. Bank Nifty also looks weak with solid CE writing at 27800-28000 levels and covering at 27500 levels. However, note that 10 stocks make up 70% of the Nifty and 4 stocks make up 80% of the Bank Nifty, and therefore levels can be swayed easily and in minutes.
3. There is a lot of buying interest in Tata Global both in the cash and FnO markets. Place it in your radar.
4. Jagran Prakashan promoters have been buying stock at regular intervals this month. With 26% FDI in media announced today, this stock may see better days.
5. Shorts are building up in Zee.
Date: 27-8-19 Tuesday
1. Massive PE writing at 11000-11100 suggests that downside is capped for this expiry. CE Writing suggests upside is capped at 11200-11300. However, the macros are very weak, so please proceed at your own risk.
2. Put Amara Raja on your charts. It looks weak, and a break below 618 can hurtle it towards 605.
3. Based on option writing cues, the BNF range for tomorrow is 28000-28500
4. Shorts are building up in Bharti Airtel at 348 level. there was volume selling towards the close.
5. Hindustan Zinc looks very strong on charts. There was volume buying today
Date: 26-8-19 Monday
1. Massive PE writing at 10900-11000 suggests that the market will be buoyant at least for this expiry. In addition, bears will be afraid to sell because the FM has indicated more reforms are coming over the next 2 weeks.
2. Rupee should depreciate quite a bit because of RBI reserve withdrawal. Investing in Dollar, Singapore dollar or Swiss Franc looks good.
3. BEL is looking strong on the charts. CMP 102.
4. Government is expected to announce SOPs for real estate this week. Put this sector under your radar.
5. NIIT Tech is red hot even at 1396. There was promoter buying in the last 2 weeks and it is possible the stock will do 1500 in the short run.
Date: 22-8-19 Thursday
1. Jindal Stainless at 30 bucks looks like an excellent stock to SIP or buy on a fall (around 20-24 levels).
2. Heavy CE writing at 10750 and PE writing at 10700 suggests market may move in a narrow band tomorrow. However, note that bias is very negative.
3. There is solid unwinding in Grasim. It could be because of Idea’s debt. It goes up one day and then falls very hard for 2 days. It does seem that the stock is very weak.
4. There was massive selling in BNF today and going by the ferocity, it seems that over the short term it should hit 25500.
5. RIL too is witnessing massive sales in the FNO segment. If you own the stock, you should exit it now and buy back at lower levels later.
Date: 21-8-19 Wednesday
1. There was massive buying in Nestle today because it will now be shifted to A group.
2. There is something up in penny stock Spentex Industries. An operator has bought 59 lakh shares at 30 paise. Track it if you love micro caps.
3. Massive call writing at Nifty 10950 and put covering at 10900 suggests that tomorrow may be a weak day.
4. Per option writing cues, the BNF range is 27600-28000.
5. Raymond was hammered throughout the day today and looks weak for tomorrow. Put it on your charts.
Date: 20-8-19 Tuesday
1. As per option writing cues the range for tomorrow is 10950 to 11000.
2. MFSL saw very heavy buying today, more so towards the close.
3. Insiders sold out 330000 shares of LTFH at 104 today. This stock looks bearish.
4. MGL saw heavy buying today and NMDC saw heavy selling today. It is possible that the trend will reverse tomorrow for these PSUs. Place these on your charts.
5. Data suggests short covering has started in Concor, and that it may continue tomorrow.
Date: 19-8-19 Monday
1. Global markets are very bullish as I write this, but FPIS are using every rise to sell. Many times it feels that Nifty will do 11300-11400,, but FPIs start hammering near 11200 levels. For tomorrow’s trade the bias at this moment seems bullish.
2. Option writing cues suggest Nifty range at 10950-11100. Today FIIs sold a large quantity of options, maybe CEs. Perhaps they are working to a plan – that they will hammer when Nifty rises and cover back the options they have written.
3. There were heavy sales pressed in MGL and Biocon today.
4. There’s short covering going on in PVR, and perhaps it will continue tomorrow.
5. Tata Motors seems to be in a solid bear grip. Callls are being written and Puts are being covered. It is a sell on rise stock.